Predictability of spatial distribution of pre-summer extreme precipitation days over southern China revealed by the physical-based empirical model.

Southern China is prone to floods during the wet season, and regional extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent given the context of climate change. However, the prediction skills and predictability of the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over southern China remain unclear. To address this issue, through observational diagnosis and numerical experiment, the present study revealed the formation mechanisms of the two leading modes of pre-summer (May and June) EPDs in southern China, and established a physical-based empirical model (P-E model) to predict the distribution of EPDs in the region. The results revealed the following: (1) the first mode of pre-summer EPDs in southern China displayed a uniform pattern, while the second mode presented a meridional dipole pattern. The uniform pattern of the first mode is associated with the tropical western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (TWPAC), whereas the meridional dipole pattern of the second mode is related to the subtropical western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (SWPAC); (2) the spring North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, the northern North America surface air temperature, and the snow cover depth over central Siberia contribute to the variation of the first mode and TWPAC, whereas the spring extratropical North Atlantic dipole SST pattern and the spring change of sea ice concentration over the Barents and Kara seas are physically linked with the variation of the second mode and SWPAC; (3) based on these predictors, the established P-E model demonstrated predictive skill with regard to the principal components of the first two modes, and the spatial distribution of EPDs in southern China was reconstructed. The areal mean temporal correlation coefficient skill for the independent prediction period (2011–2021) was 0.34, while for the pattern correlation coefficient skill averaged over the entire period was 0.28. In comparison with the maximum attainable skills, both metrics indicate potential for improvement. The findings of this study represent a reference for the prediction and predictability of the spatial distribution of pre-summer EPDs in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]